The variable that no one is talking about is what impact if any the invasion of Ukraine will have on our housing market. We are now into the 11th day of the conflict and intrusion on Ukrainian soil by Putin and his Russian Army. I am quite sure the majority of his soldiers don’t even know why they are invading the country.

However, as this unprecedented and deathly invasion continues, it reminds me of
Sept 1, 1939, as Hitler started his invasion of Poland, and there began the start of
WWII. But now we have not only Russia to deal with but its new partner in crime, China, which has yet to come out and condemn or condone the senseless move into a sovereign, democratic and free country.  The Russian military action is a threat to not only other countries nearby, but to the rest of the world.

Fortunately, NATO has never been so connected and solidified indirectly and maybe soon will directly fight the aggressive actions of Russia. This unconscionable event just may have an effect on our strong housing activity, as the volatile stock market has been shaky with its ups and downs due to the war.

But I hope this won’t be looked at as business as usual and things go back to normal. The retaliatory moves against the Russians have been globally supported and even protests in Russia, where thousands have been arrested, and elsewhere have shown strong solidarity for Ukraine and its people.

In the United States, inflation is at a 40-year high, while gas prices have been climbing to a historic level not seen since 2008. Moreover, food and energy, e.g. oil and natural gas, have been increasing to levels that are putting tremendous pressure on so many budgets, potentially setting the stage for another recession.

If you are going to be selling and/or purchasing, I would suggest not waiting and devising a plan of action to take advantage of the still high demand and low-interest rates so that you can either downsize, move up or purchase your first primary residence. FYI, there are programs that first-time buyers can avail themselves of through Nassau, Suffolk, and Queens counties to be able to get on their lists to secure $30,000 of grant money, based on income and other factors. If you’ve lived in that home for at least 10 years, you will not have to pay the money back.  You can Google, grant money for first-time buyers and if you need any assistance whatsoever, just call me.

The only thing left is the psychology of our current environment which might be the final straw to cast a net over our current “hot market.” Normal supply and demand economics generally has been the rule of thumb and for the most part for all of our commodities unless, as we know, some phony, creative, and sometimes illegal things are concocted to cause a market to go up or decline.

But some may surmise that due to the lowest inventory and historically lowest interest rates anyone can remember, this amazing run can’t or won’t stop until one or both of those factors increase to a level that will slow our current insatiable trend. It could happen. That being said, I truly hope that we are not at a critical and crucial turning point for housing demand to change.  I wish us to be in a more normal and balanced position.

I am quite concerned, but still keeping a positive attitude and hope and pray that the Ukrainian situation will be settled and come to a more beneficial result for the people and the rest of the global community so that we can eliminate the risk of an escalation into an unfathomable WWIII.

You can donate what you can to the following organization:

donate.iom.int

The International Organization for Migration:
IOM is scaling up its humanitarian operations in Ukraine and neighboring countries, providing emergency services in health, shelter, winter supplies, and protection.

I would appreciate (and anyone’s volunteering to help me) with any donation that could be provided, if not money, then canned or boxed food, powdered baby food, toiletries, blankets, first aid kits, clothing, toothpaste, toothbrushes, Tylenol, etc. or any commodities that we can send there to ease the stress and issues of those citizens who are in a desperate situation. You could bring them to my office, noted below, but call me in advance to make sure someone will be there!

Philip A. Raices is the owner/Broker of Turn Key Real Estate at 3 Grace Ave Suite 180 in Great Neck. He has 40+ years of experience in the Real Estate industry and has earned designations as a Graduate of the Realtor Institute (G.R.I.) and also as a Certified International Property Specialist (C.I.P.S). For a “FREE” 15 minute consultation, a value analysis of your home, or to answer any of your questions or concerns he can be reached by cell: (516) 647-4289 or by email: [email protected]